For the 13th straight year your fearless leader is here to make you all fabulously wealthy with my weekly college football gambling picks.
Don’t think I don’t hear the whispers out there:
- “Clay’s too rich to care about making other people rich now.”
- “Given that he has written the bestselling nonfiction book in America, Clay’s focus is elsewhere now.”
- “Did you see how amazing Clay looked Sunday night on the new Outkick Show on Fox News?”
- “Clay is too busy advising presidential campaigns now to make gambling picks.”
- “Have you seen how his hair glistens in the refracted light off his beach house rooftop pool?”
- “I wish he was my dad instead of my real dad.”
- “I wish he was my boyfriend instead of my actual boyfriend.”
Trust me, I hear all of it.
But that’s all just noise, just distractions put out there from big gambling companies hoping we don’t bankrupt them this fall.
And guess what, I’m back and better than ever. (FYI, I went 2-2- in Week 0, but everyone knows Week 0 is like JV football.)
We’re ready to go 18-0 for Week 1.
Yes, I’ve got 18 incredible winners for you.
So let’s get right to it.
Nebraska +7.5 at Minnesota on Thursday night
This is a Matt Rhule bet.
Plain and simple.
Neither of these teams are very good and I’m convinced Matt Rhule is going to win at Nebraska. Sure, I was even more convinced Scott Frost would win at Nebraska too and probably lost early bets on this same logic too, but damn it, this time I’m right.
The Cornhuskers lose by three.
But they cover and that’s all we care about.
Florida at Utah, the under 45.5 on Thursday night
We don’t know about Cam Rising’s health which is why I’m not taking Utah by a full touchdown here.
We do, however, know that the Florida Gators stink this year. Especially on offense.
Which is why the under is my blood bank guarantee this week, hop on board and get rich, kids. (And I barely even made you read anything before you got to a guaranteed money maker. See, who loves you more than me? No one.)
Arkansas State at Oklahoma, the over 58.5
I’m in love with overs this week.
I know, I know, we’ve got new clock rules on first downs and in theory the games should be a few plays shorter, but here’s a general life lesson: Oklahoma always sucks at defense.
Yes, even with a defensive head coach.
They just do.
And Butch Jones is coaching Arkansas State so you know he’s going to give away at least two touchdowns just by basic game management failures.
Boom(er) the over hits.
Ball State at Kentucky, the over 48.5
Kentucky’s got a hot new offensive coordinator and a hot new quarterback and even Mark Stoops, who would drive 45 miles an hour in a Maserati on the Bluegrass Parkway, isn’t going to keep this offensive engine in neutral.
The Wildcats come out gunning and put up 45 by themselves.
I can’t believe I’m doing it, but I am, it’s a double blood bank guarantee, boys and girls!
Yes, two surefire winners that are absolutely, positively, guaranteed to win. (Unless they lose, in which case I will disavow the entirety of this pick faster than every school that could bailed on the Pac-12.)
The over cashes with ease.
Colorado at TCU, the over 59.5
Deion Sanders has Big Noon eyes upon him for Week 1 and TCU is trying to prove last year wasn’t a fluke.
So what happens?
Points rain down upon all of us.
And the over hits in this game too.
Virginia at Tennessee, the over 57.5
I’ll be at this game here in Nashville to see Joe Milton begin his Heisman Trophy season in person.
Milton goes for four touchdowns passing and one rushing and Tennessee hangs 50+ on the Hoos. (But the Vols give up 24, so I’m not messing with the 28-point line here.)
The over cashes on the banks of the Cumberland.
Utah State +25.5 at Iowa
I hear the doubters, “But Clay,” they say, “you don’t even know a single player on Utah State’s team, how can you be so confident they cover the 25.5 at Iowa?”
The answer, my friends, is simple.
I know Iowa.
And Iowa shouldn’t be favored by 25.5 on air.
Give me the Utah State Aggies.
New Mexico at Texas A&M -38
Speaking of the Aggies.
Bobby Petrino isn’t running on to the field for the first game, he’s riding out on a motorcyle.
And then his offense is going to roll all over New Mexico.
At the end of the game, Jimbo Fisher is going to shake hands and say, “Welcome to Old Mexico, bitches.”
And he’s going to cover.
UMASS at Auburn, the over 52.5
Because I have no life, I watched UMASS-New Mexico State this past weekend and let me tell you, UMASS made some plays, none worthy of all caps, but close.
Meanwhile Hugh Freeze is back in the SEC and that means only one thing.
And potential scandals, but, let’s be honest, it’s Auburn, no school embraces scandal more than Auburn, it’s their natural scent.
The over cashes with ease with Freeze back at the helm.
Ohio State at Indiana +28.5
We all know how this game goes right?
Indiana’s down six driving with the ball late in the third quarter attempting to take the lead when the Hoosiers throw a pick six on a first and ten play featuring a QB check from a draw to a quick hitch.
86 yards later the Buckeyes are up 13.
Then Indiana fumbles the ensuing kickoff and Ohio State goes play action and scores on the first play after the fumble.
Then the Buckeyes go for two, get it, are up 21 and suddenly all of you are cursing me for getting all this right and telling you to take the Hoosiers plus the points.
But, trust me, a late IU touchdown gets us the cover. Just don’t get your hopes up when this game is close late in the third quarter. IU is to football what Lucy was to Charlie Brown.
(And I apologize for having to explain how this entire game goes, but I apologize even more to the sad Indiana fans who read this entire game plan and have a single solitary tear rolling down their cheeks right now because they know I’m right about it all.)
Rice +35.5 at Texas
Is Texas back?!
Even worse, the Owls lose by 31 and cover.
Nevada at USC, the over 65.5
I’m betting the over in every game when USC outclasses the opponent this year.
Which means I’m betting the over in at least ten USC games this fall.
Last week USC gave up 28 to San Jose State. Everyone is scoring at least 20 on them all season long. But they’re scoring 50 on just about everyone too.
Voila, the over hits.
MTSU +39.5 at Alabama
This is a monster number considering Alabama may play three quarterbacks and is still trying to hide who is starting.
I just don’t see the Tide offense clicking this early in the season and I think the Blue Raiders, who won last year on the road at Miami, can post ten points on Bama.
So give me the big underdogs here to cover.
West Virginia +21 at Penn State
The Nittany Lions have their best quarterback since Kerry Collins.
I think Drew Allar is going to be insanely good.
But it’s going to take a little while and in the meantime, West Virginia comes to town and keeps it a single digit game until early in the fourth quarter.
Country Roads take us to a cover in Happy Valley.
North Carolina vs. South Carolina, the over 64.5
This is my sneaky pick for the best game on Saturday.
You’ve got two quarterbacks who have proven they are capable of being top ten in all of college football, returning talent on offense, in particular, and a neutral site game in Charlotte that should be evenly split between fan bases.
Toss in the brutal early schedule for South Carolina — at Georgia and at Tennessee both before September — and the early Heisman hopes for Drake Maye and you’ve got a slingshot game for both teams, win and you’re giddy, lose and you’re super scared about what’s to come.
One team wins 38-35, I’m just not sure which it is.
So I’ll ride the over instead.
Old Dominion +15.5 at Virginia Tech
The teams have played four times since 2017 and split the series evenly.
Virginia Tech has been an absolute disaster for several years now.
And while they’re climbing out of the hole, I don’t think they are there yet.
Give me ODU on the cover.
Northwestern +7 at Rutgers on Sunday night
Northwestern is angry at the world right now.
Anger isn’t always the best recipe for victory, but it can work in short spurts, the challenge is in knowing which way it’s going to be channeled.
I think the Wildcats channel it well in Week 1 and cover for Fitz.
LSU at Florida State on Sunday night, the under 57.5
I made sure to put that this game was going to played on Sunday night because lots of you are going to get drunk early on Saturday and given the heat, you’re going to be even drunker than normal and I guarantee that every group of guys going to games will have at least one friend that says, “Dude, we’ve got to get to (insert location here where there is more beer and potentially good looking girls) to watch LSU and FSU!”
And at least one of your buddy’s is going to keep saying this all afternoon and you’re all going to have to keep reminding him that the game isn’t until Sunday night.
But you can comfort him by saying, “Don’t worry though, Clay Travis says it’s a blood bank guarantee that the under is hitting,” so you can go ahead and place your bets on Saturday and know that come Sunday night you’ll have more money coming your way.
You’re welcome for a third week one blood bank guarantee.
And let’s all start celebrating now.
Because we’re all going 18-0!